PollWatch 2024: Could the Election Be a Landslide?

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Yesterday, we had an item about how the national polls are sometimes way off, with polling errors between 1% and 7% since 1980. This year, it is a virtual tie nationally and in all the swing states. Nothing seems to move the needle, since Kamala Harris was swapped in as a pinch hitter for Joe Biden...

Posted by Hans at 02:36 PM | 14 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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Individual pollsters may have some built-in bias that they don't even know about. Our hope is that by averaging all recent polls, that will cancel out to a large extent. But what if it doesn't? What if, on the whole, the polls are biased a few points one way or another? How much difference would that make?

One way to find out is to conduct a little experiment.

#1 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-17 02:37 PM | Reply

The polling, especially in swing states, is being flooded with "red wave" garbage polls designed to skew the results and depress the turnout of democrats. This was done in 2022 and the media told us all to brace for a "red wave".

#2 | Posted by Nixon at 2024-10-17 03:41 PM | Reply

The Media is doing everything it can to make sure it's portrayed as a 'toss-up' that could go either way... because they make more ad money that way.

And they are shameless about their role in overturning democracy:

"Leslie Moonves on Donald Trump:

"It May Not Be Good for America, but It's Damn Good for CBS"

Leslie Moonves can appreciate a Donald Trump candidacy.

Not that the CBS executive chairman and CEO might vote for the Republican presidential frontrunner, but he likes the ad money Trump and his competitors are bringing to the network.

"It may not be good for America, but it's damn good for CBS," he said of the presidential race.

Moonves called the campaign for president a "circus" full of "bomb throwing," and he hopes it continues.

"Most of the ads are not about issues. They're sort of like the debates," he said.

"Man, who would have expected the ride we're all having right now? ... The money's rolling in and this is fun," he said."

www.hollywoodreporter.com

#3 | Posted by Corky at 2024-10-17 03:50 PM | Reply

Been saying it's going to be a blue tsunami for over a year now.
Abortion rights and Trump fatigue are the 2 biggest factors. Project 2025 is also a negative factor for MAGA and Orange Adolf.

#4 | Posted by a_monson at 2024-10-18 09:58 PM | Reply

... Could the Election Be a Landslide? ...

My current answer: No.

Make that NO!!!

Why do I say that?

The momentum and excitement that has filled the sails of the campaign of VP Harris seem to have diminished.

As I have been saying for weeks (months?)...

The VP Harris campaign needs to focus upon turning the early excitement and support she had received into voter turnout, not just voter turnout for her, but also for the down-ticket candidates.

Comments proffering some manner of blue wave work against those goals.

The Democrats are behind in the swing states and need to get out to vote.

#5 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-18 10:07 PM | Reply

@#6 ... Yesterday, we had an item about how the national polls are sometimes way off, with polling errors between 1% and 7% since 1980. This year, it is a virtual tie nationally and in all the swing states. Nothing seems to move the needle, since Kamala Harris was swapped in as a pinch hitter for Joe Biden: ...

Indeed, even the cited article does not seem to substantiate a landslide.

#6 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-18 10:10 PM | Reply

"Indeed, even the cited article does not seem to substantiate a landslide." -

#6 | Posted by LampLighter

Of course it doesn't. Do you not recognize the question mark at the end of the title: Could the Election Be a Landslide?

If you had bothered to read the article, the authors merely laid out scenarios where the polls are X% off, one way or the other.

Can you not read?

#7 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-18 10:19 PM | Reply

@#7 ... Can you not read? ...

I did read the article before i posted my comment.

I was not convinced.

What else does your current alias got?

#8 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-18 10:25 PM | Reply

"I was not convinced." -

#8 | Posted by LampLighter

If you had bothered to read the article you would have seen that there was nothing they were trying to convince you of.

They merely laid out scenarios where the polls are x% off, on way or the other, and how that would affect the Electoral College.

If you can't follow their reasoning, and their attempt to make one think about polling and bias, well, then...

...I can explain it to you, I just can't make you understand it.

Perhaps you should just learn when you should just keep your ignorant mouth shut.

You're welcome, my dear friend.

#9 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-18 10:32 PM | Reply

So, just please stop airing dirty laundry in public, giving the Trumpanzees reason to point to ostensible simpatico Harris supporters who are more interested in eating each other out in publc rather than demonstrating the concept behind #StrongerTogether.

#10 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-18 10:35 PM | Reply

@#9 ... If you had bothered to read the article you would have seen that there was nothing they were trying to convince you of. ...

Again, I did read the article.

And the title states... "Could the Election Be a Landslide?"

And I stated that the article does not substantiate that title.

So, what's your current alias' point, besides trolling?

#11 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-18 11:12 PM | Reply

And I stated that the article does not substantiate that title." -

#11 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-18 11:12 PM

That wasn't the point of the article.

Apparently, you're just too stupid to understand that.

Meanwhile, what's this b*llsh*t about my "current alias"?

I've been here, as Hans, for over 19 years.

What's your former alias?

#12 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-18 11:16 PM | Reply

#11 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-18 11:12 PM

Friendly suggestion, my dear friend:

Learn when you should just keep your ignorant mouth shut.

You're welcome, MAGAt.

#13 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-18 11:18 PM | Reply

Today's important update

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#14 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-18 11:22 PM | Reply